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Tahlequah, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Tahlequah OK
National Weather Service Forecast for: Tahlequah OK
Issued by: National Weather Service Tulsa, OK
Updated: 7:50 am CDT Jul 13, 2025
 
Today

Today: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 10am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 10am.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Showers
Likely then
Chance
T-storms
Tonight

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Calm wind.
Slight Chance
T-storms then
Mostly Cloudy
Monday

Monday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 10am.  Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Calm wind.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Chance
Showers then
Chance
T-storms
Monday
Night
Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Calm wind.
Partly Cloudy
then Slight
Chance
T-storms
Tuesday

Tuesday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 10am.  Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Chance
Showers then
Chance
T-storms
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm  in the evening.
Partly Cloudy

Wednesday

Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the morning.
Chance
Showers then
Chance
T-storms
Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm  in the evening.
Chance
T-storms

Thursday

Thursday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Slight Chance
T-storms

Hi 82 °F Lo 68 °F Hi 84 °F Lo 69 °F Hi 88 °F Lo 72 °F Hi 91 °F Lo 72 °F Hi 91 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Flood Watch
 

Today
 
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 10am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Calm wind.
Monday
 
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 10am. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Calm wind.
Tuesday
 
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 10am. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Wednesday
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the morning.
Wednesday Night
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Thursday
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Friday
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph.
Friday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 72. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Saturday
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, with a high near 93. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Tahlequah OK.

Weather Forecast Discussion
703
FXUS64 KTSA 131117
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
617 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue today
   and likely lasting into Monday, with potential for locally
   heavy rainfall. A Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 PM this
   evening for all of the NWS Tulsa forecast area.

 - Rain/storm chances become more diurnally driven by Tuesday,
   with the best coverage shifting to the northeast of the area.

 - A weak front approaching the area from the north will continue
   to bring chances for storms Wednesday and Thursday.

 - Storm chances drop off by the end of the week as ridging tries
   to build in aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Mid-level trough/MCV currently over the southern KS will shift over
northeast OK by mid-late morning. At the surface, a weak frontal
boundary should remain stationary across east-central OK and
southeast KS through the daytime. Consensus in global and hi-res
model data suggest showers and thunderstorms will increase in
coverage on the southern and eastern periphery of the MCV, across
southeast OK and northwest AR, a few hours after midnight and
through the morning hours. Locally heavy rainfall/flooding remains
the primary threat, though there may be enough instability for
marginally severe downbursts with more organized activity. Despite a
somewhat worked-over atmosphere after convection in the morning,
another round of diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms seems
probable sometime mid-late afternoon as some destabilization occurs.
Daytime heating, lingering MCV, and leftover outflow boundaries
should cause scattered to numerous showers and storms, with hi-res
models focusing convection mostly across southeast OK and western
AR. This is also where the highest PWATs (2+ inches) will be located
by the afternoon. Rainfall amounts will vary (maybe greatly) from
location to location, but in general, additional rainfall amounts 2+
inches will be possible today.  A plethora of cloud cover and
rainfall will keep temperatures unseasonably cool for mid-July.
Afternoon highs will generally reach the low-mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The mid-level trough axis and associated vorticity lobe will park
itself and become nearly stationary over the forecast area tonight
and through much of the day on Monday, maybe even beyond Monday.
Latest 00z run of the HRRR suggests a decrease in precipitation
after sunset this evening and into the overnight hours. Maintained a
chance of showers and storms given the juicy environment and trough
over the area. Otherwise, tonight should be mostly dry with
overnight lows dropping into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Isolated to scattered diurnally-driven convection looks probable
again Monday and through at least Wednesday as the upper-level
trough finally begins to lift northeast out of the area thereafter.
A weak cold front will try and approach the forecast area sometime
Wednesday or Thursday, but likely will not be strong enough to push
through. Long-range models hint at showers and storms may accompany
the frontal boundary as it approaches, and may push into northeast
OK and northwest AR Wednesday night into Thursday. Beyond Thursday,
models and ensembles indicate mid/upper-level ridging finally
beginning to build in over the southern CONUS by late in the week
and into next weekend. With that said, temperatures will trend
warmer and precipitation will trend drier each day through the long-
term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to
impact all terminals southeast of I-44 through mid morning.
Additionally, most areas will ceilings of 500-2500 feet, at least
off and on through the morning hours, with some improvement during
the afternoon. Additional showers and storms will develop for the
afternoon hours in southeast OK and northwest AR, bringing heavy
rain and gusty erratic winds. Within any storms, temporary
reductions in visibility and ceilings can be expected. Winds will
remain light and variable outside of storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  70  88  73 /  50  10  20  10
FSM   86  73  88  72 /  80  20  50  20
MLC   85  70  87  72 /  70  30  40  20
BVO   84  67  89  68 /  40  10  20  10
FYV   83  68  86  68 /  70  20  40  20
BYV   83  68  86  68 /  70  20  40  10
MKO   83  70  85  71 /  60  20  40  20
MIO   83  69  87  69 /  70  10  20  20
F10   83  69  86  70 /  50  20  30  20
HHW   84  70  87  71 /  70  40  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ049-053-058-062-063-
     065>076.

AR...Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-
     029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...06
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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