Tahlequah, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

643
FXUS64 KTSA 040506
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1206 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1206 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

 - Gusty south winds and warm temperatures continue Monday.

 - Thunderstorm chances return by Monday evening through Tuesday
   night. Some severe weather potential will exist Monday night
   and Tuesday.

 - Below normal temperatures briefly return mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Gusty south winds will continue Monday, along with above normal
temperatures. Afternoon highs will generally be in the upper 70s
to lower 80s despite increasing high level cloudiness. Dew points
will also steadily increase as low level moisture increases during
the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Monday evening into early
Tuesday, with the best chances across far northeast Oklahoma where
elevated convection may develop. If storms do occur here, elevated
instability will be sufficient for some hail. Isolated storms may
also develop late Monday afternoon or evening along the dryline
across southwest Oklahoma, with some potential for these storms to
move into parts of southeast Oklahoma by late Monday evening as
they weaken.

A strong cold front will move across the area late Monday night
and Tuesday, with additional shower and storm development possible
near the boundary, especially late Tuesday afternoon and evening
from far southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. This will be
the most likely location for a severe storm Tuesday. Additional
elevated showers and storms may develop north of the boundary and
persist into Wednesday before ending.

Much colder temperatures will prevail north of the frontal
boundary Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by a warming trend
beginning Thursday. Temperatures will warm back above normal by
Friday into next weekend. Rain chances will return next weekend,
with a hint at MCS potential at that time with west to northwest
upper level flow continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A strong LLJ will
bring LLWS conditions both overnight tonight and again tomorrow
night. Gusty south winds during the day will reach around 30 kts,
with a few higher gusts possible. The latest CAMs suggest a storm
may develop off the dryline in SW OK and move toward KMLC by early
evening. Inserted prob30 mention there to cover.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  63  70  49 /   0  30  10  20
FSM   82  64  81  55 /   0  40  30  50
MLC   82  67  80  52 /   0  20  10  30
BVO   83  59  65  46 /  10  30  20  30
FYV   80  60  75  48 /  10  60  60  50
BYV   79  60  72  48 /  10  70  80  60
MKO   81  64  78  50 /   0  40  20  30
MIO   79  59  67  47 /  10  60  50  40
F10   81  65  77  49 /   0  30  10  20
HHW   80  68  83  59 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30